Will the Scottish team finally break the New Zealand curse?

Match scene
The All Blacks have made multiple changes to the side that defeated the Irish team

Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh Date: this weekend Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Match moment
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the narrow loss to the All Blacks in 2022

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.

Jodi Cooper
Jodi Cooper

A certified mindfulness coach with over a decade of experience helping individuals achieve mental clarity and emotional balance through simple practices.